Saturday, 16 May 2015

The Modi-Xi balance sheet: Only baby steps in a difficult relationship



Subject
Xi’s visit to India (Sep 2014)
Modi’s visit to China (May 2015)
Effect




Atmospherics
Modi received Xi in Ahmedabad, personal touch, high symbolism
Xi travelled to Xi’an, reciprocated Modi’s gesture
Positive
Boundary dispute
Agreed that boundary question should be resolved quickly as a strategic objective
The same formulation was used. Modi pressed more strongly in media statement
Status quo
Frankness
Modi raised border issue in media statement, following a major border intrusion in Ladakh during Xi’s visit
Modi raised border question far more strongly in public statements. Says it creates “shadow of uncertainty” in speech to Tsinghua University
Positive
High-level engagement
It was agreed that both leaders would meet at regular intervals
State/Provincial Leaders’ Forum also established. First meeting attended by Modi and Li Keqiang
Positive
Trade imbalance
No concrete steps to reduce India’s negative trade balance
No concrete steps to reduce India’s negative trade balance
Negative
Investment
It was agreed that China would invest US$ 20 million in India in the next five years
China announced the establishment of two industrial parks in Maharashtra and Gujarat
Positive
Consulates

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Agreed to open new Chinese consulate in Chennai, new Indian consulate in Chengdu
Positive
Railway cooperation
Speed raising on Chennai-Bengaluru-Mysore line, high speed link between Delhi-Nagpur, setting up of rail university
Repeated the same intentions, noted the MoU on cooperation in railways
Status quo
Kailash Mansarover
India appreciated China assistance in Yatra, China promised new route through Nathu La
New route through Sikkim to become operational this year
Positive
Multilateral organisations (UN)
China has not promised to support India for a permanent UNSC seat, only “supports India’s aspiration to play a greater role in the UN”.
Same formulation, no change
Status quo
Multilateral organisations (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation)
China welcomed India's candidature for full membership of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
No change
Status quo
Regional outreach and cooperation
China’s “Maritime Silk Route” and “One Belt, One Road” outreach not mentioned, India cold to initiatives
No mention in joint statement, India remains cold
Negative
Atomic Energy
“Nuclear energy” was mentioned as an area of mutual cooperation
Agreement on “working level consultations” between Indian and Chinese atomic energy departments. Agreed on need to expand civil nuclear energy programmes.
Positive
Global arms control and non-proliferation
No mention of India’s aspirations, nor mention of cooperation on NSG, MTCR, Australia Group   and Wassenaar Arrangement
Noted common approach and agreed to engage bilaterally and multi-laterally. China noted India’s aspiration to join NSG to strengthen international non-prolifer
Positive










2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Shukla,
Pray tell us if Modi has given something very important to China like others..
Like..

# Tibet is autonomous region of China
# India and China have five passes for trade..
# India will withdraw its consulate from Xigatse and Lhasa..
#Tibet is integral part of China..
# China is natural member and fit to be in UNSC ( of course at the cost of India).
# No Tibetan political activities on Indian soil .. so on and so on.
# BPTA..


I can count many. You being a budding erudite journalist must keep your readers abreast of the historical context and not compare Narendra Modi with Narendra Modi within one year. It takes centuries for the mandarins of South Block for an idea to sink into their lazy, obsessed and settled minds.

Krishna Suresh said...

The greatest accomplishment of the National Democratic Alliance government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to restore trust in India.

modi